Sunday, 4 October 2015

Green October

The 100% October record for sub 1.51 favourites continued yesterday with the Los Angeles Dodgers beating the San Diego Padres by a single run. The Pittsburgh Pirates drifted to ~1.53 and ended up not being a qualifying selection, which was a good thing because they lost.

It's déjà vu all over again, as the recently departed Yogi Berra once said. Today our favourite pitcher is in action again, and even though the Dodgers have nothing to play for having already won the NL West, they are around 1.32 with Clayton Kershaw to beat the Padres again today. 1.32 will be the second shortest price of the season. There's not much chance of this price drifting past 1.50, but the Pittsburgh Pirates are possible qualifiers currently around the 1.47 mark. This one could drift, but either way, this will be the end of betting on hot favourites in baseball for a few months. The play-offs are a completely different ball game, pun intended.

Hopefully some of you have made some money on this strategy since I made the observation just before the All-Star Break in early July. Since that day, there have been 84 winners from 115 selections with a profit of 15.95 points - an ROI% of  13.9%. 

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