Poisson

This blog wields more power over the markets than I thought! The healthy 1.8 on Over 2.5 goals tipped up here yesterday morning for the Hamburg v Eintracht Frankfurt game soon disappeared, and traded as low as 1.67 pre-game. It could have been the millions from Asia moving the market, but I think it was my blog. 1.67 was borderline value, and while I am hesitant to say I traded out for a risk-free bet on Overs because you will all accuse me of after-timing, I did actually go for the risk-free bet. So no win, but no loss either.

I've been tinkering with the ratings spreadsheet again. Actually tinkering is something of an understatement, since I have now added a Poisson distribution calculation to the process. I now use the team ratings in my formula to calculate the probability of each team scoring against a specific opponent, so for example Fulham would be expected to score less versus Manchester United than they would versus Stockport County. My 'model' also weights the latest games more highly than the older ones. It's been many years since I sat in my Croydon classroom learning about the Poisson distribution. Anyway, still some tinkering to do in the area of low scores (0-0, 1-0, 0-1 and 1-1 where, I am informed, the independent Poisson model doesn't hold) but there is a wealth of information out on the web when I have time.

Not a bad day for my picks, with one of two strong draws a winner as Tottenham Hotspur drew at Newcastle United (3.6). Werder Bremen lost 0-3 at Koln, but the strike rate on these remains high and very profitable. I also managed to find a rare home value winner as Parma beat Catania 2-0 at 2.07.

Peter Nordsted's Drawmaster system was profitable again, with one from three, but for Football Elite, the dreadful run continues. Three Recommended Bets today, and not one winner with Wolves losing to Liverpool, Hannover '96 losing to Schalke '04 and Freiburg drawing with Nuremberg. The losing run now stands at eleven, with the last winner back on New Year's Day. My ratings didn't concur on any of today's games, so I was a spectator on these. A Short-List bet was Mainz '05 to beat Wolfsburg, but the streak that ended was Wolfsburg's seven consecutive draws as they beat Mainz '05 1-0.

I traded the Aston Villa v Manchester City game after backing the 0-0 on the Correct Score market at 13.0 and laying No Next Goal at 11.0 to reduce the PC next week. I could have done with a 0-0 result, but it all helps. I'm trying the same on the AS Roma v Cagliari game which is now in progress.