Friday, 21 March 2008

Opening Thoughts

What is "Green All Over?"

The title is a reference to 'Greening-up', a term used by Betfair users to describe the ideal scenario whereby every possible outcome on an event will result in a profit. (The 'what-if' figure shows on the screen in green.)

I have been active on Betfair for almost four years now, and have had some moderate success. Some good wins, some small wins, some small losses and some frightening losses, but overall I have made a steady profit.

I have recently starting reading a number of blogs themed on Betfair, hoping to pick up some ideas, but sadly most seem to be a diatribe of eating and drinking habits, interspersed with less than informative betting related comments like "Lost £2.67 on the cricket today".

So, as arrogant as ever, I am hoping to fill this gap with a blog that goes a little deeper into the reasons why I made or lost money, my thoughts and emotions as the win / loss was happening, and perhaps filled with other observations from the world of betting.

If horse-racing is your thing, then this blog is probably not for you. Racing is just not for me. Rather like the stock-exchange, there are far too many insiders with access to a lot more information than I have and I find that the world of sports offers a more even playing field.

My investing style, and I prefer the term 'investing' over 'betting', is to trade fast moving sports in-running, looking for value. The markets are driven by two factors, fear and greed, and in the heat of battle, these factors drive people to make bad decisions and take or offer poor value bets. This is what I look for. I don't always win, but like I explained to my old Mum, if I can get 2-1 on a coin toss, I'll lose some but win a lot more. Sadly I don't often find 2-1 on evens chances, but in Betfair terms if I can get 2.1 on a 2.0 chance, I'm happy.


Graeme Dand said...

Hi Robert.

Just wanted to say good luck for the journey ahead.

Incidentally, I also think Tiger represents value at 2 to win this tournament but I don't think backing him first and trying to trade from there is the way to go.

My decision to lay first was slightly vindicated by the fact he traded at 2.26 in round 1. Unfortunately, I wasn't in the house at the time and I left my back in the market at 2.46, so I was slightly too optimistic!

If I had been trading the gof properly, (I do intend spend more time on the golf in the future!), I could have made a decent amount from trading Tiger alone.

I'm amazed at the swings in his price after every shot he takes. I'll be looking to exploit this at the Masters as I'll be against Tiger there in a big way!

Look forward to reading your thoughts in the weeks ahead!


Mark Iverson said...

Hi Cassini,

It's nice to see a new blog out there.

I'll be interested to see if your writing style changes over the next 12 months as it's not as easy as it looks (at least to me anyway!)

Good luck.