Monday, 1 January 2001

New Bundeslayga

In September 2010, I noticed that the strategy of laying home favourites in the German Bundesliga was consistently profitable, making this an ideal system for mitigating Betfair's Premium Charges.


The basic Bundeslayga System layed teams priced by Pinnacle at between 1.3 and 2.00.

The results for the four seasons 2012-2016 are posted here, but with the addition of Pinnacle's closing prices to Football Data's spreadsheets, I took a fresh look at the approach and decided to tweak it for a couple of reasons. 

One was that the System was losing some of its potency - markets adapt, and my feeling is that much of the value of laying home odds-on selections was now gone (possibly in part my own fault for publicising this system).

A second reason was to determine whether the 1.3 to 2.0 range was still optimal. Eliminating shorties and odds-against selections made it a simple system, but reviewing the closing price data shows that the implied profitability range of 40% to 75% is more profitable.

The table below shows the results of the Traditional Bundslayga and for the New Bundeslayga, using Pinnacle's Closing prices.
I've left the original returns using the early scrape Pinnacle prices on this post which shows the difference that price movements can have on a system.
  
Note that because the lay option is only available on the Exchanges, and Pinnacle do not offer a 'lay' price, the formula used in my calculations adjusts the home price depending on the Pinnacle over-round.

For example a Home price of 1.51 in a Pinnacle Sports market of 102% is adjusted to 1.5395. 

1 / [( 1 / 1.02 ) * ( 1 / 1.51 )]  

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